Public Policy Polling, as they do regularly, put a national poll into the field. Their analysis of said polling as it relates to the 2010 elections is a must-read:
Right now 50% of voters say they oppose President Obama's health care plan to just 39% in support. Digging a little deeper on those numbers though 64% of respondents planning or open to voting Democratic this fall support it with only 22% opposed. The overall numbers are negative only because of 94/1 opposition among folks who have said there is no way they'll vote Democratic this fall.
It's a similar story when it comes to the prospect of repealing 'Don't Ask, Don't Tell.'
On the ballot question, the numbers are actually not catastrophic. As in most years, the Democrats have a built-in base that will vote for them no matter what, and the GOP has a built-in base that will vote against Democrats no matter what. The Democrats have a larger pool of resistance than they do a base, but barely so: 37% of voters will definitely not vote for Democrats, while 34% of voters will definitely vote for Democrats.
That leaves a persuadable group of roughly a third of voters who have not put themselves firmly in either camp. This is not a group that is uniformly hostile to health care or the repeal of DADT. They split about evenly on health care (42/44), and they approve of the repeal of DADT by a two-to-one margin.
The "persuadables", it must be added, are not uniformly hostile to President Obama, either. Far from it: Obama enjoys a respectable 54/36 approval spread with the 30% of voters who are willing to consider voting Democratic.
Many folks, myself included, have argued that action on signature Democratic causes is necessary to rally a base that, at this moment, does not appear to be terribly interested in heading to the polls in November. What this poll reveals is an important corollary--there is a significant bloc of voters outside of the traditionally defined "Democratic base" who want to see action on these causes, as well.
The poll also crystallizes a critical point that the Democratic leadership and President Obama would do well to take to heart: the people who would be most mollified by timidity on core Democratic causes are nothing short of a fool's errand as a campaign target. They can say they want bipartisanship and the nebulous concept of "centrism", but they will undoubtedly vote Republican in the Fall regardless of Democratic action or inaction.
Or, as PPP's own Tom Jensen put it so succinctly:
Congressional Democrats really need to decide if they're going to let their agenda be dictated by voters who won't support them no matter what they do.
If they decide to accept inaction or half-measures to placate a solidified and immovable opposition, this poll makes it strikingly evident that they have absolutely nothing to gain, and quite a bit to lose.