I Think Obama Is Blowing It...Here Is Why...
Sun May 25, 2008 at 08:14:03 AM PDT
Boy, oh boy, do I know the peril of what I am about to do here. I imagine that this diary will be in the tubes for about 9.6 seconds before the first "concern troll" tag is latched onto it.
Nope. Not a concern troll...check the record.
But I am someone who think that the Obama campaign is doing something very foolish right now, bordering on the arrogant, which might cost them dearly in about two weeks. Follow me past the jump for what the hell am I referencing.
According to TPM Election Central, this is where the Clinton's chief two campaigners (Hillary and Bill) planned to be over this holiday weekend:
- Brandon, SD
- Brookings, SD
- Bozeman, MT
- Lewiston, MT
- Miles City, MT
She was also in Puerto Rico, according to radio news reports yesterday.
Meanwhile, Obama had three scheduled events, in:
- Miami, FL
- Sunrise, FL
- Middletown, CT
Much has been made of Obama turning to the General Election by engaging McCain rather than HRC, hitting some of the Fall battlegrounds, etc. On balance, a sound strategy, I think.
But there are three contests remaining. And to give those the one-rally treatment (as was done in KY and WV, by and large) is LUNACY. He ought to be matching her appearance for appearance in these three contests. He ought to be in Puerto Rico, trying to pull off the upset there. He ought to be running up the score in Montana and South Dakota, where polls have him up double digits.
If he plays the general election strategy for the next ten days, he runs the real risk of losing P.R. by a solid margin, and only winning Montana and South Dakota by the high single digits. That would be viewed as a loss by the media scorekeepers. Furthermore, it allows for several metrics in which HRC can claim a legitimate popular vote lead. My accounting (which includes MI and FL but gives all of the uncommitted votes to Obama) gives him a lead under 200,000 votes. A blowout loss in Puerto Rico, coupled with 5000-10,000 vote wins in MT and SD, and Clinton has ANOTHER lifeline.
Her campaign needs to be forceably ended, because she has made it abundantly clear she has no intentions of doing the right thing here. He needs to blow her out HARD in MT and SD. He needs to hold her margin down, or even score the huge upset, in Puerto Rico.
Campaigning in the general election states does not help you if you are suddenly compelled to fight the primary for two more freaking months, because you took your eye off the ball.
End this thing, Senator Obama. Book a darned flight to Rapid City or San Juan, I don't care which. End. This. Thing.
